Alexander Jordan, University of Turin and Sahay Solar Association Africa, Frankfurt am Main
Sintesi
Nonostante l’eccellente performance dell’Etiopia in termini di crescita economica, il paese presenta difficoltà significative nella gestione di siccità e carestie che ostacolano un pieno processo di sviluppo. Le strategie governative per affrontare la vulnerabilità in ambito rurale si focalizzano sulla modernizzazione delle tecniche agricole. Il presente articolo spiega che tali metodi risultano insufficienti a causa della persistenza di fattori legati alla vulnerabilità come la forte crescita demografica e la mancanza di infrastrutture in aree rurali remote. Inoltre la maggior parte della popolazione rurale etiope utilizza biomassa, come il legno, come fonte primaria di energia, con impatto negativo sulla produttività dell’agricoltura e sulla disponibilità di risorse naturali e sui conseguenti conflitti sociali. L’autore presenta come consistenti investimenti in energia rinnovabile rappresentino un interessante potenziale per lo sviluppo delle aree rurali del paese, che permetterebbe di affrontare diverse dimensioni delle sue fonti di vulnerabilità.
The Ethiopian economy has developed impressively with double digit growth over the last decade (Deloitte, 2014). In contradiction to other fast growing economies like Nigeria or Angola, Ethiopia achieved its remarkable growth without exploiting fossil resources .Yet, the strongly agricultural based economy suffers as 85% of the Ethiopian soil is at least to some extent degraded and this threatens agricultural productivity and food security (Gebreselassie et al., 2016). The problem will potentially deteriorate in the future due to the ongoing rapid population growth. According to estimations Ethiopia is projected to have 140 million inhabitants by 2030 and 190 million inhabitants by 2050 from which more than 65% of the population are likely to live in non-urban areas (Wordometers, 2017).
In order to become more resilient against the negative consequences of climate change and to continuously follow the development path given its resource constraints, Ethiopia would require to shift stepwise from a natural resource-based towards a skill- and technology-based economy. Therefore, access to electricity is crucial for the Ethiopian population, which still has an outstanding small average annual electricity consumption as can be seen in Table 1.
Only 27.2% of the Ethiopian population has access to electricity which hinders improvements in health, education and businesses development (Energypedia, 2017). Without electricity Ethiopians heavily depend on biofuels, i.e. firewood, manure, and crop residues, that represents by far the largest share of the total primary energy supply (TPES, see figure 1). The dominance of biomass is not surprising given the fact that 80% of the Ethiopian population live in rural areas where only 10% have access to electricity (Barnes et al., 2016; Energypedia, 2017). Biomass is mainly used for cooking and lightening purposes but the dependency on biomass has various negative implications. Firstly, open-fire food preparation causes increased susceptibility to diseases related to air pollution (Africa Progress Panel, 2015). Secondly, the high consumption of firewood increasingly depletes the forests, reduces the fertility of the soil and makes them prone to erosion (Mulugetta, 1999; Bekele and Palm, 2009).
Fig. 1 Shares of total primary energy supply (TPES).
In addition, the use of crop residues and manure as energy source spurs the depletion of farm land and reduces agricultural productivity (Bekele and Palm, 2010). Finally, the availability of biomass for rural households is declining in the face of an ongoing population growth and lacking access to alternative energy sources (Wolde-Ghiorgis, 2002).
Therefore, a shift towards on- and off-grid electricity would create several social and economic advantages. Among the most obvious advantages of electricity is the much higher quality of emitted light that facilitates housework and homework tasks of women and children (Ellegård et al., 2004; Balint, 2006; GTZ, 2010). Ethiopian women, that are responsible for any off-farm task, would save time, effort and money that presently are invested in the procurement of biofuels which become increasingly scarce due to population growth (GTZ, 2010; Komatsu et al., 2011). Access to electricity also reduces health threats from open fire pollution and risks of blazes are minimised (Martinot et al., 2001; Balint, 2006; Obeng et al., 2008; GTZ, 2010). Moreover, information would become accessible via mass media and overcrowded schools would have the possibility to provide education during evening hours (Al-Soud and Hrayshat, 2004; Ellegård et al., 2004; Balint, 2006; Gustavsson, 2007; Komatsu et al., 2011). Besides the mentioned reductions in discomfort and widening possibilities in education and social life, electricity access can unleash the evolution of new businesses, services and employment opportunities that contribute to the development of remote areas. This point is crucial as an improvement in rural living conditions reduces the tendency of migration to increasingly overcrowded urban areas or the risk of brain drain to foreign countries.
Fortunately, the Ethiopian government is aware of these potentials and has launched the second phase of the Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP-II) in 2015, which aims to provide electricity connection for eight million units (predominantly households) by 2020. To achieve this goal the Government of Ethiopia is willing to progressively exploit the immense potential for renewable energies and aims to become climate resilient with zero carbon growth by 2025 (Derbew, 2013). Hereby, hydro and wind power are the main targets of financial investments and produced already 10,433 TWh in 2015 with hydro power bearing the lion share (9,674 TWh). The annually produced electricity will increase over the next years as large dam construction projects such as the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (estimated annual electricity generation: 16 TWh) and the Gibe III Dam (estimated annual electricity generation: 6,5 TWh) are already or close to being finalized (Africa Progress Panel, 2015; The Economist, 2016, 2017). With the completion of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Ethiopia will have the largest hydro power plant and fourth largest wind farm (Adama II: 1,342 TWh / year) in Africa (Face2FaceAfrica, 2017).
On the one hand these efforts of the Ethiopian government to spur development by exploiting its hydroelectric and wind potential bears promising prospects for different reasons. Firstly, it allows to generate emission free renewable energy that feeds the rising electricity demand of the country. Secondly, it would create exports of energy to the neighbouring countries such as Kenya, with positive consequences on the facilitation of foreign currency inflow (SWR2, 2015). Finally, it would foster regional integration and cooperation.
The combination of wind and hydro power suggests to be a perfect combination as wind power can smooth electricity supply during the dry season and does not overload the grid during rain season when winds occur sparsely.
On the other hand this strategy bears several drawbacks. By controlling the water flow the construction of large hydro power dams influences the natural system and leads to soil erosion in the downstream area. In addition, these projects create tensions with neighbouring countries concerning the access to water, e.g. disputes with Egypt regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile (The Economist, 2017), as well as conflicts with its own population, e.g. resettlement of the Oromo people due to the Gibe III Dam on the Omo river (The Economist, 2016). Moreover, it is disputable how far hydro power can be a sustainable solution in an already drought affected country. Even though performance fluctuations might be smoothed by wind energy, intensified climate conditions can create (inter)national public pressure on the Ethiopian government to unleash the water flow.
Besides performance and political issues, a closer look at the spatial distribution of the Ethiopian population hints at the occurrence of major challenges to supply electricity to its inhabitants. The lion share of Ethiopians (80%) live in rural and remote areas without proper access to infrastructure. In addition, large parts of the Ethiopian landscape are mountainous and difficult to reach. Hence, the provision of grid-based electricity is currently an utopia for the majority of rural peasants as it is costly and potentially impossible for the Ethiopian government to expand the grid to the whole country. Reflecting that the already installed grid connections suffer from frequent power cuts and limited efficiency due to long transport distance, it is worth to consider additional promising solutions.
Regarding this issue, Table 2 clearly shows that Ethiopia has not only an enormous potential for hydro and wind power but also for solar energy. Exploiting solar irradiation with off-grid technologies would allow to provide electricity without the necessity to expand the existing grid-network over long distances to even the remotest areas. Instead, each household or village would become its own energy producer and could set up small local grid networks. Since 50Wp are sufficient to satisfy basic energy demands of small rural households (GTZ, 2010), the diffusion of Pico Photovaltaic Systems (Pico PV) and Solar Home Systems (SHS) would be adequate to serve the current demand of 10.27W per capita (= 0.09 MWh / capita in 2015, see table 1).
This solution might not be as prestigious as the hydro and wind power flagship projects but the promotion of decentralized off-grid electricity generation would spur the electrification in remote areas and would set a cornerstone for rural development.
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