by Giovanni Marin (IRCRES CNR Milan), Massimiliano Mazzanti (University of Ferrara and SEEDS) and Marianna Gilli (University of Ferrara and SEEDS)
Sintesi
L’articolo presenta una breve discussione riguardo all’impatto dei consumi europei e mondiali su Brasile, India, Indonesia e Cina, sia a livello aggregato che singolo. Vengono considerate le dimensioni di emissioni di gas serra, occupazione e crescita economica in tali economie emergenti, e vengono analizzati gli andamenti di queste variabili fra il 1995 e il 2010.
Abstract
This article presents a brief discussion about the impacts of European and world consumption on Brazil, India, Indonesia and China, both at an aggregate and at a single level. The dimensions of greenhouse gas emissions, employment and economic growth in these emerging countries are considered and their growth trends between 1995 and 2010 are analyzed.
The objective of this article is to report some insights on the environmental, labour and social implications of European and world demand in emerging countries such as Brazil, India, Indonesia and China.
To assess the impacts of European and world consumption on these emerging economies, three indicators are used: environmental footprint is evaluated using the aggregate trend of greehouse gas (GHG) emissions; social footprint is measured by the employment created in the countries; finally, the economic footprint is approximated using value added (VA). The following plots describe the trends of the shares of GHG, employment and VA induced by EU27 (and worldwide) final demand in these emerging economies over the total GHG, employment and VA generated by EU27 (and worldwide) final demand, from 1995 to 2009.
Figure 1 considers the aggregate level (Brazil, India, Indonesia and China together). The trends of GHG and employment induced by the EU27 tend to accelerate from year 2000 and start to decrease since 2008-2009; the direction of these indicators has been influenced by the economic crises at the end of the 2000s, which caused European demand to shrink, thereby reducing emissions and employment generated by EU27 demand all over the world.
On the contrary, emissions and employment induced by the world demand are growing steadily over the period; this is not entirely surprising since the crisis involved mainly the advanced economies, while countries such as China continued to grow at high rates. In particular, the employment generated by the world demand is approximately constant over the period.
The growth of environmental pressure at the aggregate level is mainly driven by GHG production induced by the European demand in China and India, as it is shown in Figure 2 and Figure 3 (in particular 9% of emissions induced at the end of the period in China and 1.7% in India). At the same time, it has to be noticed that, all over the period, employment generation has been stable in these countries and value added generation barely reached 2% in China and 0.5% in India at the end of the period. Compared to the increasing environmental pressures, European demand did not create adequate social and economic benefits in return.
Concerning the effects of world demand, social benefits offset a rising environmental pressure but economic benefits growth is still below GHG trend.
Figure 1- Share of environmental pressures and economic activity occurred in China, India, Indonesia and Brazil to satisfy the final demand in the EU27 and the world. Source of data: WIOD.
Figure 2- Share of environmental pressures and economic activity occurred in China to satisfy the final demand in the EU27 and the world. Source of data: WIOD.
Figure 3- Share of environmental pressures and economic activity occurred in India to satisfy the final demand in the EU27 and the world. Source of data: WIOD.
In Brazil and Indonesia, European demand had a more positive impact on employment, as it is presented in figures 4 and 5. The trend of the generated employment is increasing and GHG growth has been lower than in China and India, especially looking at the trends for Indonesia. In general, the impact of both EU27 and world demand had a positive social footprint while, concerning the economic benefits, the effects remains ambiguous (e.g., the value added generated in Brazil show an hectic trend).
Figure 4- Share of environmental pressures and economic activity occurred in Indonesia to satisfy the final demand in the EU27 and the world. Source of data: WIOD.
Figure 5- Share of environmental pressures and economic activity occurred in Brazil to satisfy the final demand in the EU27 and the world. Source of data: WIOD.
To conclude, in Asian countries such as China and India, European demand induced a faster growth in GHG emissions than demand from the rest of the world did, while the social and economic footprint did not offset the negative environmental impact. On the contrary, in Brazil and Indonesia, European as well as world demand had a more positive impact, helping to generate more employment in exchange of a relatively lower environmental impact. However, the economic impacts of both demands remains relatively small and sometimes unstable.
